Cake Shop Analytics & Forecasting

We`ve already discussed how data analytics & sales forecasting might help restaurant managers to improve their business performance so we are moving in a specific case like cake & pastry shops. Their case is pretty specific, hence interesting.

Cake shops are close to restaurants & coffee shops with one key difference. Their core products, cakes, and pastries are pretty specific because of the limited shelf life. This means the planning and forecasting are crucial in order to maintain the tiny balance between overstock and missed sales.

And it is not just this. You have to keep in mind that the shop manager should count the production time needed for the cake to be made and eventually it`s transportation if the cake shop production is at another location. If festive days are coming, they should be taken into account because the demand might be increased. Last but not least, when cake orders should be placed, the store manager should keep in mind not just the existing production but its production date.

These are the 5 key variables in cake & pastry business

  • Existing stock
  • Expiry date
  • Production time
  • Transportation time
  • Possible demand volatility

Balancing between the abovementioned variables is a complex exercise of experience and gut feeling. The problem is that not everyone is experienced and the gut feeling is biased. On top of this, it is not accurate.

This is where sales forecasting and analytics comes to help at cake & pastry shops

No one knows a business better than its owner or manager. Except its historical data. Modern predictive analytics is capable of giving the right answer when variables are more than a few. Cross this with even more variables like seasonal behavior, weather forecast, and newly forming trends and you can have pretty accurate sales forecast with accuracy exceeding 95%.

This is how a cake & pastry shops will be always filled with the right amount of stock maintaining the tiny balance between missed sales opportunities and overstock. Data analytics is not just capable of forecasting how many cakes you will manage to move on a particular day or time period but also which kind of cakes.

The benefits of sales forecasting & analytics for cake & pastry shops

  • Improved revenue since the shop production is not out of stock
  • Happy customers since they are going to find what they prefer or looking for
  • Limitation of the production wastage to healthy percentages
  • Improved business efficiency

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